Early Favorites and Predictions Heading into Indian Wells
Which WTA and ATP players have the best chance to win Indian Wells in 2025?
The 2025 BNP Paribas Open, also known as Indian Wells, will take place March 2-16, and the favorites to win the tournament have already emerged.
Meanwhile, players will compete in tournaments from Dallas to Doha and Del Ray Beach to Dubai, impacting tour rankings and seeding at Indian Wells.
As you know, I don’t like to gamble, so these predictions do not concern Las Vegas and its betting odds. I used criteria, including off-court turmoil, recent results, the surface, past performance at Indian Wells, and injuries, to create this list.
The following are my early favorites and predictions heading into Indian Wells.
The ATP Favorites
Jannik Sinner is the most dominant player on the ATP Tour. He’s No. 1 and now has three Major titles on hardcourts. Carlos Alcaraz is the two-time defending champion, going for a three-peat at Indian Wells. Sinner and Alcaraz are the clear favorites going into Indian Wells. However, I give a slight edge to Alcaraz.
Despite Sinner’s 3,700-point lead over the No. 2 player, Alcaraz will arrive in the desert with as much invisibility. Sinner has never won this tournament or even reached the final. Last year, Alcaraz beat Sinner in the semifinal.
Honorable mention: Taylor Fritz. Despite his upset loss to Denis Shapovalov in Dallas, Fritz is a California native who feels at home at Indian Wells. He won this tournament in 2022.
The Sleepers
Sleepers are players who can win the tournament but are flying a little below the radar. It seems crazy to list Novak Djokovic as a sleeper. The guy has won the tournament five times. He holds the record of 20 consecutive wins from 2014 to 2017.
Yet, in 2025, Djokovic is as vulnerable as ever. He’s a few months from turning 38 and coming off an Australian Open in which he had to retire in the semifinals. But you can never count him out because of his past success. The only issue is that you can’t count him in due to injuries. He last won this tournament in 2016. Roger Federer has a more recent title (2017) at Indian Wells than Djokovic.
Honorable mention: Daniil Medvedev. Meddy has suffered a few upsets recently. However, he reached the final at Indian Wells in 2024 and 2023.
The Dark Horse
Unlike sleepers, dark horses aren’t even on the radar. Few people give these players a chance to win the title at Indian Wells. Gael Monfils was on an eight-match winning streak when he had to retire from the Australian Open in the fourth round.
The best-of-three format will be kinder to Monfil’s 38-year-old knees. If he can reproduce his play in Australia and Auckland, he could shock many and win this tournament.
Honorable mentions: Ben Shelton. Big Ben is due for a breakthrough tournament.
The WTA Favorites
Before the Australian Open, I would have said Aryna Sabalenka was the best hardcourt player on the WTA Tour. After Madison Keys's performance, I’m not so sure. Keys was better than Sabalenka in every facet of the game.
Keys didn’t add new weapons to her game. She kept her head and unleashed an arsenal that was always in her possession. Having cleared a major mental hurdle, Keys could soar through tournaments. This makes her more of a wildcard than a favorite.
Despite never winning this tournament, Sabalenka remains my favorite, with Iga Swiatek slightly behind. Sabalenka reached the final at Indian Wells in 2023, where she lost to Elena Rybankina in a tight 7-6 (11), 6-4 match. Sabalenka has won three Major titles since that loss and is the reigning No. 1.
Swiatek has won the tournament twice (2024 and 2022). In the final of last year's tournament, she defeated Maria Sakkari 6-4, 6-0. Swiatek is 18-2 at Indian Wells.
Honorable mention: Despite coaching drama, Rybakina is always a threat. She won the tournament in 2023.
The Sleepers
Ignore Belinda Benic’s ranking (No. 157). She is having a Top 10 season so far. She reached her first semifinals post-pregnancy, where she upset Rybankina 2-6, 6-3, 6-4.
Honorable mention: Naomi Osaka, winner in 2018.
The Dark Horse
Emma Navarro has proven to be a solid hard-court player. She has only won one title, Hobart, outdoors and on hard courts. Navarro’s chances lie in the draw. She can hang with any counterpuncher or big hitter. And despite her size, Navarro handles big servers well too. She’s 2-1 against Keys, 1-0 against Osaka, and 1-2 against Sabalenka, 2-1 against Coco Gauff.
Honorable mention: Jasmine Paolini.
How Serena Williams’ Pregnancy Gave Birth to Rules Changes for WTA Players
Two-time Wimbledon Champion Petra Kvitova announced she will return from maternity leave just in time for Indian Wells and Miami. Kvitova joins a host of moms on the WTA.
A top player leaving the sport, having a child, and returning is not new. Margaret Court was in her 20s when she returned from having a child, and so was Kim Clijsters.
However, having several moms on tour is something new. Chris Evert, Steffi Graf, and Justine Henin had their first child after they retired.
It wasn’t until Serena Williams's comeback, which sparked rules changes, that moms returning to work on the tennis court became as commonplace as mothers returning to the office.
Belinda Bencic, Taylor Townsend, Elina Svitolina, Naomi Osaka, Caroline Wozniacki, Tatjana Maria and Victoria Azarenka are all working tennis moms. Last year, there were seven moms in the draw at Indian Wells.
How have things changed for working moms on the WTA Tour?
The WTA introduced new rules in 2018-2019 to protect rankings for players returning from pregnancy and maternity leave, directly influenced by Serena Williams' comeback. Players can now use their pre-pregnancy ranking to enter 12 tournaments over a 3-year period.
The tour added seeding protection for returning mothers at all WTA tournaments. Previously, players like Williams had to start unseeded despite their prior rankings, creating early-round matches against top players.
The rules now allow players to wear compression garments/leggings without skirts after Williams' catsuit controversy at the 2018 French Open. This change acknowledged both medical needs and players' right to choose appropriate attire.
Mothers received expanded childcare support at tournaments, including dedicated spaces for nursing spaces and care facilities at major events. The WTA also increased financial assistance for travel with children and caregivers.
I'm glad the WTA finally recognized that players shouldn’t be penalized for starting a family. Women already suffer career setbacks due to motherhood. However, having a child should not be career-ending.
Sipping on Style: How Mocha Mousse is Taking Over Your Cup and Closet
A mocha is my favorite coffee drink. I've shared various mocha recipes — dark chocolate, peppermint, and Viennese — with you in the Coffee Corner of Courtside Coffee. In 2025, you won’t be able to avoid mocha.
Mocha Mousse is the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year. Mocha Mousse (PANTONE 17-1230) is meant to evoke a feeling of flavorful warmth. Mocha Mousse is a rich, velvety brown so indulgent it practically melts on your tongue.
This isn’t just a color; it’s a sensory experience infused with the warmth of your favorite morning brew and the decadence of a well-frothed cappuccino.
Imagine me screaming in an Oprah-giving-away-stuff voice, “Mocha Mousse is Gonna Be Everywhere!”
Read more about this trending color in Smash’n Fashion.
How to Make a 3-Ingrediant Mocha Mousse
What You’ll Need:
Instant coffee (get some high-quality stuff)
Heavy whipping cream
Sugar
Instructions
Dissolve 2 tablespoons of instant coffee and 3 tablespoons of sugar in 2 tablespoons of hot water. Let cool.
Whip 2 cups heavy cream until stiff peaks form.
Gently fold coffee mixture into whipped cream until fully combined.
Refrigerate 2 hours or more before serving.
Tip: Taste and adjust the coffee/sugar ratio to preference.
Serves 4-6.
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