Miami Open 2025 Women's Final: Pegula vs. Sabalenka Preview and Prediction
Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka seek their first Miami Open title and much more. Who will win?
Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka will play for the championship trophy at the 2025 Miami Open in a rematch of the 2024 US Open final.
Both women stand to gain more than their first Miami Open title. Sabalenka hopes to create more distance between her and No. 2 Iga Swiatek, who in the live rankings is closer in points (7470) to Coco Gauff (6063) and Pegula (5793) than to Sabalenka (10,191).
If Pegula wins, she moves ahead of Gauff to No. 3 and becomes the No. 1 ranked American.
The winner takes home $1,124,380. The runner-up gets $597,890.
It’s a clash between style and temperament. Sabalenka is the boisterous big hitter whose power often overwhelms opponents. Pegula generates power through racket-head speed. She’s a crafty point-builder who relies on shot selection and precision to outmaneuver her opponents.
Who will win?
Head-to-Head
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 6-2. Pegula last defeated Sabalenka at the 2023 WTA Finals in a round-robin format. Pegula’s only other win was at the Cincinnati Open in 2020, which was played in New York because of the Covid-19 restrictions. All but one of Sabalenka’s wins have come in straight sets.
Sabalenka’s Road to the Final
Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set. Her toughest test came against Qenwin Zheng in the quarterfinals. Zheng managed to break Sabalenka’s serve four times. Still, Sabalenka dictated the pace of the entire match. The match against Zheng lasted one hour and 36 minutes. The rest of Sabalenka’s matches were over in 90 minutes or less.
Pegula ’s Road to the Final
Pegula battled through three three-setters en route to the final. In her last two matches, Pegula won the first set and dropped the second before running away in the third. She defeated Emma Raducanu 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-2 in the quarterfinals and Alexandra Eala 6-2 7-6(3), 5-7, 6-3 in the semis.
Pegula has played in five tiebreakers.
Possible Game Changers
Pegula is a fighter. However, she lacks a reliable kill shot. Sure, Pegula. The weather in Miami has been humid. Grigor Dimitrov and Raducanu required medical attention after appearing overcome by heat and humidity. Yesterday, Novak Djokovic wore cooling gloves during changeovers.
“I just felt really dizzy,” Raducanu told reporters after the match against Pegula.
I’m a fourth-generation Floridian, so the weather has been perfect—not too cold or hot. I was confused about why players were sweating and nearly fainting. Then I checked the humidity levels; they were not crazy but high for this time of year. Pegula lives and trains in Boca Raton, Florida, and is more accustomed to the humidity. If she can push this to three sets, this could give her an advantage.
Prediction
Pegula is a fighter. However, she lacks a reliable kill shot. Sure, Pegula can hit winners from both wings. But when I say kill shot, I’m talking about that shot you know is not coming back, like when Arthur Fils throws his body into a cross-court forehand, or Stan Wawrinka shifts his weight into a one-handed backhand. Remember Serena Williams’ serve down the T?
Sabalenka’s forehand and serve are kill shots that can snatch the match from opponents. Sabalenka is taller, hits harder, and serves more aces.
The only edge I give to Pegula is mental endurance. Sometimes, Sabalenka grows frustrated in tight matches. When she can’t impose her will over an opponent, Sabalenka will spray unforced errors. It’s how Mirra Andreeva wore Sabalenka down at Indian Wells. It’s also how Gauff beat her to win the 2023 US Open.
Still, Sabalenka is the No. 1 player and has reached the finals at Indian Wells and the Miami Open. Last year, she was 18-1 in Grand Slam tournaments (she skipped Wimbledon). She’s won all three of her Grand Slam titles on hard courts.
Of course, Pegula has a chance. But I’m predicting Sabalenka won’t be giving out chances tomorrow. Sabakenka wins: 6-3, 6-3.