What Jannik Sinner's Three-Month Ban Means for the Rest of the ATP Tour

Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev benefit from Sinner's absence. Meanwhile, many on the tour think Sinner is getting special treatment and tennis is losing.

Jannik Sinner's tidy three-month ban caused more uproar off the court than the impact his absence will probably have on the ATP Tour.

By tidy ban, I mean Sinner's suspension settlement reads like a deal brokered by agents and sponsors. He will miss no Grand Slam tournaments, lose no prize money, and return in time to play Rome, the biggest tournament in Italy, the country he represents.

If you're a Sinner fan and believe he is blameless, three months seems too long. However, if, like Stan Wawrinka, you think Sinner got preferential treatment, this settlement is too lenient.

Either way, this is not the end of the Sinner doping scandal. As Andy Roddick put it, this three-month suspension creates more controversy than if he hadn't been banned. Sinner’s official period of ineligibility is from February 9 to April 13 and includes credit for four days previously served while under a provisional suspension.

The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) stated, regarding the Sinner’s settlement:

WADA accepts the athlete’s explanation for the cause of the violation as outlined in the first instance decision. WADA accepts that Mr. Sinner did not intend to cheat, and that his exposure to clostebol did not provide any performance-enhancing benefit and took place without his knowledge as the result of negligence of members of his entourage. However, under the Code and by virtue of CAS precedent, an athlete bears responsibility for the entourage’s negligence. Based on this case's unique set of facts, a three-month suspension is deemed an appropriate outcome.

I’m not doing a deep dive into tennis’ unforced errors on anti-doping policies. Last year, I did a podcast on how tennis incentivizes doping.

Instead, I’m focusing on what happens next. How does Sinner’s settlement impact the game and his fellow players?

Who benefits the most from Sinner’s doping ban?

Zverev is ranked No. 2 and benefits the most from Sinner’s ban. Zverev suffered a heart-breaking loss to Sinner in the Australian Open final. Sinner has about a 3,200-point lead over Zverev. Now Zverev rolls into tournaments as the No. 1 seed.

Despite reaching the semis last year at Indian Wells, Sinner won’t lose points because those points were stripped from him after he tested positive. However, Sinner will lose 1,000 ranking points by not defending his title in Miami. He could lose up to 2,100 over the three-month ban.

Zverev has a chance to close that gap heading into the clay-court season. Clay is Sinner’s worst surface.

Top players with lopsided head-to-head records against Sinner will also benefit. They won’t have to run into Sinner in the quarterfinals or semifinals. This includes Casper Ruud, who is 0-3 against Sinner, Taylor Fritz (1-4), Tommy Paul (1-3)and Ben Shelton (1-5).

Zverev has a winning record against Sinner (4-3). Alcaraz is 6-4 against Sinner. Djokovic is 4-4.

The real race is between Zverev and Alcaraz. Fewer than 625 points separates them. Alcaraz has the Indian Wells title to defend. Zverev lost in the semis in Miami and the quarterfinals at Indian Wells.

Although having Sinner out of the way might seem like a win for Djokovic, it’s not. Djokovic’s most formidable opponent is Father Time. Whether he runs into Alcaraz, Zverev or Fritz, it doesn’t matter. Djokovic is battling diminished knees, and like most tennis greats, he’s feeling added pressure as his career nears its end.

Sinner is losing the locker room.

Nick Kyrgios scores a win because a settlement means he'll have something to needle Sinner about for at least the next five years. Kyrgios makes no secret of his disdain for Sinner. Now Kygios has new ammunition to aim at Sinner's reputation.

"Fairness in tennis does not exist," Kyrgios posted on X. "Obviously Sinner's team have done everything in their power to just go ahead and take a 3 month ban, no titles lost, no prize money lost. Guilty or not? Sad day for tennis."

Kyrgios wasn't the only player expressing dismay at what they consider an accommodating sentence.

Three-time Major winner Stan Wawrinka posted to social media: "I don't believe in a clean sport anymore.”

The Professional Tennis Players Association, founded by Novak Djokovic and Vasek Pospisil, posted a statement on social media criticizing the ITF and WADA for perceived bias.

"The 'system' is not a system. It's a club. Supposed case-by-case discretion is, in fact, merely cover for tailored deals, unfair treatment, and inconsistent rulings. It's not just the different results for different players. It's the lack of transparency. The lack of process. The lack of consistency. The lack of credibility in the alphabet soup of agencies charged with regulating our sports and athletes," the PTPA posted.

If Sinner thought this settlement would settle things, he's wrong. Sinner will probably receive a hometown hero's welcome when he returns to Rome. Expect a few side eyes from fellow players.

"It just seems a little bit too convenient," said former player Tim Henman of the language in the settlement.

“Obviously having just won the Australian Open, to miss three months of the Tour and therefore to be eligible to play at Roland Garros, the timing couldn’t have been any better for Sinner, but I still think it leaves a pretty sour taste for the sport,” said Henman. “When you’re dealing with drugs in sport it very much has to be black and white, it’s binary, it’s positive or negative, you’re banned or you’re not banned. When you start reading words like settlement or agreement, it feels like there’s been a negotiation and I don’t think that will sit well with the player cohort and the fans of the sport.”

That's the problem with doping rulings in tennis. Too many come with the "no fault of their own" language, leaving fans wondering why suspend them.

When lawyers are involved, all parties must cover their assets. So, athletes take punishments with plausible deniability. The players on Tour know the truth, and seeing so many go public with their disapproval tells me Sinner faces a loss in respect on the Tour.

This mess is unfortunate. The No. 1 player's reputation is tarnished. No matter how you feel about Sinner's guilt or innocence, tennis is tainted, too.